Polish Compromise
Photo by: siol.net

Photo by: siol.net

Persistent in its mindless Russophobic sentiments, Poland may become an outcast country and object of repressions from the European Union.

Sylwester Chruszcz, deputy leader of the Polish National Movement and delegate from the party Kukiz’15 in the Sejm, made a statement that Poland must build a wall on the border with Ukraine. The politician believes that this spring will see floods of illegal Ukrainian migrants. To prevent this, the Polish authorities have to spend about $57 million to fortify the border.

The nationalist party Kukiz’15 is led by punk musician Pawel Kukiz. According to his election campaign, the party’s goal is to fight illegal immigration and discourage native Poles from emigration. In the first months after the Euromaidan, the politician claimed support for Ukrainian nationalists. However, later he turned away from the followers of Stepan Bandera and Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Kukiz’15 had scored third result at the parliamentary elections in October, 2015. Law and Justice, a right-wing political party, had gained the majority of people’s voices and used this opportunity to comprise the Cabinet of Ministers.

The breakthrough of the conservatives in the Sejm was preceded by election of Andrzej Duda, member of Law and Justice, as President of Poland. He had succeeded Bronislaw Komorowski, one of the leaders of the pro-European party Civic Platform.

So, 2015 was the year of substantial transformation of Polish policy from the course of merging with European Union to the independent conservative course. Soon after that, relations of Warsaw and Berlin began to deteriorate. The German political elites were embarrassed by amendments to the bill on the Constitutional Court of Poland, according to which decisions of the Court require approval of two thirds of the judges. Volker Kauder, leader of the parliamentary group of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, appealed to European Union to take strict measures, possibly including sanctions, against Poland for “undermining European values”.

Given that confrontation with Brussels will continue to increase, Poland might find allies among the advocates of Euroscepticism. This opposition to the multiculturalism of the European Union is led by Hungary, the President of which has lately been demonstrating favor to Russia, citadel of conservative values. Another leader of European neoconservatives who sympathizes with Russia is Marine le Pen. Poland has joined the cause of Eurosceptics, but its rhetoric remains anti-Russian. Paradoxically, European politicians and journalists had blamed Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of the Law and Justice party, for following Putin’s concept of society and state organization.

New European rebels

At the beginning of 2015, Jarosław Kaczyński refused to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban despite the fact that they had long been good friends. The only thing that the two fellow politicians disagree on is attitude to Russia. Back then, Kaczyński claimed that Budapest underminef European unity by bonding with Russia. However, in January of this year Jarosław and Victor met in Poland and held a private conversation six hours long. None of the representatives of mass media was granted access to that meeting, but it is very likely that the politicians had discussed relations with Russia among other problems.

In 2016, Kaczyński’s measure of responsibility is much higher than in 2015 when he was in opposition to the authorities and could afford himself radical statements. Now, he is the leader of the party the members of which hold key positions in executive, legislative and presidential branches of power. Jarosław Kaczyński has to solve real problems, like deterioration of relations with Brussels, which is the direct outcome of Warsaw’s independent ambitions.

If Polish authorities do not consolidate with Eurosceptic countries, Poland may find itself in political isolation. Envisioning this prospect, Kaczyński may initiate a change from hostility to, at least, neutrality in relations with Russia, all for the sake of cooperation with its potential allies in Europe – countries that are friendly to Moscow, like Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. It should be noted that the Hungarian leader has already vouched for Poland, stating that he will not allow Brussels to “punish” Warsaw. The political disintegration of the European Union has begun, as has consolidation of the European “opposition” that claims its right to sovereignty. 

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Польские активисты держат плакат анти-ЕС

Polish activists holding an anti-EU banner. Photo by: WOJTEK RADWANSKI / AFP

The results of the latest elections show that Polish people have grown tired of regulations imposed by Brussels, and they are ready to support separation from the EU. It would be wise for Kaczyński to prepare Poland for a leading role in the process of decentralization of Europe.

Can Polish nationalists forget for awhile about their distaste for Russia to pursue more relevant goals? This would be a realistic decision, as most of the Russian-Polish contradictions are considerably outdated. 

The fateful plane

The only relatively recent conflict between Russia and Poland is a scandal around the downfall of the Tu-154 airliner in the Smolenskaya Oblast in 2010. The disaster had claimed lives of many high-ranking Polish politicians and military, including Lech Kaczyński, the then President of Poland. The Polish authorities still accuse Russia of deliberate concealment of the details of the catastrophe, which no one survived.

Warsaw’s position on this issue cannot be called reasoned; the politicians are rather impulsive, which is a sign of uncertainty in their own words and actions. For example, in October of the previous year Andrzej Duda made a peaceful statement that the parts of the fateful plane could be returned to Poland as result of a “first actually calm dialogue with Russia”. However, instead of the promised “calm dialogue” the Polish authorities renewed the investigation of the causes of the disaster. They contested findings that had been previously revealed by their own police and the Interstate Aviation Committee, the former blaming Russian air traffic controller and the latter blaming Polish pilots for incompetence. Jarosław Kaczyński, twin brother of the late Lech Kaczyński, claims that there was a bomb on the board of the airliner. Meanwhile, according to the data from the deciphered flight recorders, published in 2015 by a Polish radio station RMF 24, the catastrophe might have been caused by the inadequate behavior of some of the high-ranking passengers of the plane. Particularly, it was reported that Chief of the Polish Air Force Andrzej Blasik had taken command over the main pilot and forbade him to redirect the plane to the emergency airport. Perhaps, the hectic attempts of the Polish authorities to revise the investigation are, in reality, attempts to divert public attention from the unpleasant facts.

Anyway, the forcing of anti-Russian propaganda will almost certainly be fruitless for Jarosław Kaczyński and his party. National interests of Poland and Russia do not actually intersect. Initially, Warsaw showed support for the Ukrainian revolution, but soon enough it became obvious what kind of politicians had usurped power in Kiev. Poland backed away as it would be totally unwise to be “friends” with radical nationalists solely on the grounds of shared disdain for Russia. Besides, Polish citizen have to understand – those of them who yet had not – that anti-Communism and curses on the long gone USSR inhibit the development of their homeland as a unique and independent country. There is no need to go far for examples of countries that have preferred irrational hatred to space for foreign policy maneuvers; such are the poor Baltic states.

While the United States of America and Russian Federation are competing to gain real advantages like resources and influence, the “crusades” of lesser European states against Russia look pointless. There is still hope that the Polish political establishment will put aside its arrogance for the sake of geopolitical interests of Poland. 

Оригинальный текст (original)

Вредные советы Госдепа Далее в рубрике Вредные советы ГосдепаВашингтон настраивает американские и европейские банки против российских облигаций

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