Washington is fleeing from the Middle East Front, coming back to former Jamahiriya
In the closest time, Libya will become an objective of a military operation against Daesh. In 2015, the US and Great Britain started an information campaign in order to develop positive public opinion on the matter. Practically every day, high-ranking public officials of NATO members have been repeating that the threat of terrorism in Libya was escalating and the problem had to be solved by guns.
The White House has met no negative public reaction; on 10 February, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL Brett H. McGurk stated that the present situation in Libya is a threat: “if we think it necessary, we will act”. One day before director of CIA John O. Brennan called Libya the most important theatre of operation beyond Syria and Iraq for Daesh.
According to Brennan, terrorists with black banners are swallowing up local militant groups. Head of CIA stated that Daesh is becoming more active in Libya. Militants from the Middle East and Africa are coming to the republic. The Central Intelligence Agency assumes that there are 6,500 supporters of Daesh in Libya. According to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the number of the terrorists doesn’t exceed 5,000.
Great Britain is likely to support the US military operation in former Jamahiriya. According to the Sunday Times, the Royal Air Force undertook a secret reconnaissance mission to plan airstrikes against Daesh militants. Jets flew from an airbase in eastern Libya controlled by pro-western militia forces.
As early as in December 2015, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Philip Hammond said that Western countries and monarchies of the Persian Gulf can send military contingent to support the new government of the re-united Libya. The UK is ready to redeploy up to a thousand soldiers, including Special Forces.
How did it start?
Apart from the strengthening of Daesh, political settlement can be an excuse for another invasion to Libya. After the coup of 2011, the country still has no centralized government. Real power is in hands of tribes’ leaders who divided it into spheres of influence. Strife-torn Libya is in anarchy.
Leaders of Western states claim it is necessary to establish proper institutions, and complain at the outburst of terrorism. Both in Europe and overseas, they have probably forgotten that the current state of affairs in Libya is direct aftermath of their subversion.
Five years ago, the Arab spring spread from Tunisia to neighbouring Libya. As Russian orientalists think, events unfolded at a pace that allows for the conclusion that the coup in the Arab republic was elaborately staged. On 15 February, first demonstrations were held in Jamahiriya, and two days later they spiralled into mass riots.
So-called brutality of the Libyan police served as an excuse for the intervention in the internal affairs. On 17 March, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to authorise the use of a no-fly-zone over Libya. Russia abstained, but didn’t exercise a veto. Technically, the document was designed to protect the civilian population and deliver humanitarian aid. In particular, the resolution allowed to eliminate the forces threatening life and safety of civilians.
Not surprisingly, air forces of the Western countries started bombing targets only controlled by Muammar Gaddafi’s supporters. The US, France and Great Britain were the most active in the war against Jamahiriya’s leader. Heavy aerial support let rebels snatch the strategic initiative in a couple of months.
In August 2011, Gaddafi’s troops lost their chances to change the situation. Sirte, a city on the coast of the Gulf of Sidra, was the final major stronghold of the legendary colonel’s loyalists. In mid-October, Muammar Gaddafi met his death in its outskirts. Gaddafi’s murder sent rebels into raptures and didn’t cause Western countries’ leaders’ disapproval.
Muammar Gaddafi. Photo: Grigory Sysoev/TASSС
Unfortunately, Russia showed inconsistency in the Libyan crisis, too. Moscow had to watch the friendly regime falling and recognised the rebels’ government even before Gaddafi’s death. However, this diplomatic defeat in Jamahiriya served as a lesson to Russia. Now Russia defends national interests in Syria and opposes overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s.
So long, Mid East
Five years later, the West is going to come back to Libya under arms. The US is ready to bomb, and the UK and countries of the Persian Gulf to redeploy forces. There are many advantages that the operation in Libya can bring to the pro-American coalition. First of all, the gallant fighters against Daesh will save the face. When fighting starts in former Jamahiriya, the world’s attention will be diverted from the failed Mid East Front.
The effective operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces will disappear from front pages, ending up in the shadow of the world’s politics. Leading media will watch with interest the Western Air Forces bombing the Libyan Desert and reporting about success. Moving the front to North Africa may lead to the situation where Russia is left charged with a task of destroying Daesh in the Mid East.
In this case, Moscow risks to get bogged down in the region, while its foreign policy reverses will be seen as failure to fulfil its commitments. However, when drifting into this reckless war started by Americans, Europeans should think hard. 2011 Libya campaign, as well as the Syrian and the Iraq wars have led to the influx of millions of refugees.
Bombing Libya will cause at least one more wave of immigration to the EU. Grand Dame Europe hasn’t had time to “digest” migrants that came in 2015, but even more can arrive from the North African country situated right over the sea. A situation like this will work in the US’s favour. Americans will gain more leverage over Europe.
Russia hasn’t yet reacted to the situation unfolding around Libya. The Russian government should not, at least, repeat mistakes of Dmitry Medvedev’s administration. At least diplomatic measures should be taken: Russia can veto resolutions adopted by the West or rather support Ayesha Gaddafi, the colonel’s daughter, who delivered an address last week where she summoned former Jamahiriya’s military men to rally behind her.Далее в рубрике «Мы с родителями “в одной упряжке”»Директор коррекционной школы — о том, зачем учителю стремиться к большему, если ученик все равно не получит аттестат